How to: Scenario analysis
Scenario analysis helps you understand how changes in key assumptions affect performance, liquidity and risk. In X-ASTRiS you always compare scenarios against a fixed baseline.
Core concept
A scenario is a temporary adjustment of selected drivers in the forecast years. The baseline remains unchanged and serves as the reference point for comparison.
- – The baseline is fixed
- – The base year is never changed
- – Sliders apply from Year 1 onwards
- – Scenario changes are not saved
Step-by-step
- 1. Complete your baseline first
Before running scenarios, make sure your P&L and Balance Sheet inputs are complete and saved. Scenario analysis builds on this baseline.
- 2. Open the Scenario analysis view
Navigate to the Scenario tab. You’ll see the baseline as the reference and a scenario layer on top.
- 3. Adjust key input drivers using sliders
Use sliders to adjust selected drivers such as growth rates, margins, payroll assumptions or working capital ratios.
Sliders only affect forecast years. The base year remains unchanged so comparisons stay meaningful.
- 4. Compare baseline vs scenario outputs
As you move sliders, outputs update instantly. Use this to see the impact of one or more assumption changes.
Selecting outputs to analyze
Scenario analysis is most powerful when you focus on the outputs that matter for your decision. You can choose which metrics to visualize and compare.
- • Revenue
- • EBITDA
- • Net result
- • Cash balance and runway
- • Net debt
- • Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR)
- • Debt / EBITDA
- • Solvency ratio
Pick one or two outputs that reflect the decision you’re testing (e.g. cash runway for hiring, Debt/EBITDA for financing).
Interpreting results
- – Look for directional impact, not false precision
- – Change one lever at a time to understand causality
- – Compare multiple outputs (e.g. EBITDA vs cash) to avoid blind spots
- – Use ratios to understand risk, not just growth
Once you understand the scenario impact, you can refine your baseline assumptions or move to dashboards and readiness checks to prepare outputs for sharing.